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    Raiffeisenbank: Moderate Growth in Industry and Shrinkage in Construction Show the Macroeconomic Prognoses


    Raiffeisenbank (Bulgaria) EAD published its regular monthly economic review, analyzing data available in mid-July. It shows that the industrial production grew yoy for the eighth consecutive month, while construction and domestic trade declined due to reduction in civil building (-9.5% for April yoy) and shrinkage in the wholesale trading (-16.4% for April yoy) . "In April, the monthly index of industrial production kept growing to 105.8. The 12-month moving average of the index also increased slightly in line with the trend since August last year. This is definitely a sign of recovery from the crisis, although quite slow. The main driver of the positive developments was manufacturing industry, which also grew for the eighth consecutive month yoy (3.5% in April)", said the economic analyst of Raiffeisenbank Emil Kalchev.

    The monetary statistics of the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) showed an increase of the total loans by 1.8% yoy in May, for the fourth consecutive month. "Despite deflation, the unstable political situation and slightly increasing average interest rate in May, business loans stepped up. If these restraining factors improve, we expect an acceleration in lending, which, in turn, would support the growth of the real economy." added Mr. Kalchev.

    Raiffeisenbank’s analysis also mentioned the annual increase in deposits in line with the trend since 2009. The significant level of accumulated savings is an excellent base for economic growth, which is handicapped mainly by the political instability in the country and the region, along with the delay in the economic recovery in Europe.

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